Modelling Economic Consequences of Climate Change Impacts on Ground Transportation in Atlantic Canada

Transportation is one of the most important sectors of Atlantic Canada’s economy. In a sense it is a backbone of the regional economy since it provides means for moving people and freight throughout the region and eventually stimulates regional economic growth and development through national and international trade. However, according to numerous studies, the region is vulnerable to climate change impacts which among other things will affect transportation infrastructure and operations. In this study, climate change impacts are analyzed with respect to the New Brunswick/Nova Scotia Transport Corridor (NB/NS TC) located in Atlantic Canada – the main trade gateway in the region that connects seaports with the North American continent. First, major climate change impacts in the area are identifi ed. Second, the best economic model to evaluate consequences of the climate change impacts is chosen. Third, using the existing literature and studies that describe future climate changes in the region, various scenarios of future challenges for the NB/NS TC are specifi ed. Finally, economic consequences of the regional climate change impacts on the NB/NS TC are evaluated. The above specifi ed consequences are imposed on a dynamic economic model and their cumulative impacts are traced over time.